Exporters lose deals to timing far more often than to price. A buyer who has just contracted their season will not reopen it for a better quote three weeks later.
Find the ordering window, not the arrival window
Clearance dates tell you when goods landed. The buying decision typically sits six to twelve weeks earlier for ocean freight. Take the month a buyer's shipments peak and work backwards by the transit time on that lane — that is when your message needs to arrive.
Separate programme buyers from spot buyers
A company clearing a similar quantity every month is on a programme; win them by being ready when the contract renews. A company with two large clearances a year buys in campaigns; win them by being present in the weeks before the campaign starts.
- Even monthly cadence — contract renewal is the opening
- Two or three spikes a year — the pre-campaign window is the opening
- Irregular, small clearances — usually a trader or a sampling stage
Use dormancy as a signal, carefully
A quiet importer may have switched category, or may simply be between seasons. Check whether the quiet months match last year's quiet months before writing them off — and treat a genuine return to clearing after a long gap as a strong reason to call.
Frequently asked
- How much history do I need to spot seasonality?
- Two full years is ideal. Twelve months shows a pattern; twenty-four months confirms it is seasonal rather than a one-off.